The mortgage market has a way of surprising even its most seasoned observers. During the pandemic, borrowers grew accustomed to ultra-low rates, with some fixes dipping well below 2 per cent. Those deals soon faded as inflation returned and the Bank of England began raising base rates. The real shock came in the aftermath of the 2022 mini-Budget. Within days, lenders withdrew more than a thousand products and average two-year fixes, already climbing, accelerated past 6 per cent by early October. Brokers suddenly found themselves grappling with both product scarcity and supporting households who feared the ground had shifted beneath them.
Now, in August 2025, the picture is different. Average 2 year fixed mortgage rates have dipped below 5 per cent for the first time since 2022. The Bank of England has eased its base rate, swap rates have fallen, and lenders are competing more aggressively to reach their targets. Mortgages are more affordable, and clients sense that conditions are more favourable than they have been for some time.
The shape of the market
No client, of course, borrows at an average. Some with significant equity will be able to access products nearer to 4 per cent, while others with higher loan-to-value borrowing may still find themselves closer to 5 per cent. Translating these differences into meaningful advice remains the core of the broker’s role.
Affordability has also improved. Rising wages, combined with adjustments to loan-to-income limits by certain lenders, mean that some clients who felt constrained a year ago now have more scope.
The refinancing wave of 2026
This is the backdrop to the refinancing wave that awaits in 2026. Industry forecasts from IMLA and Barclays suggest remortgaging will rise from around £88 billion in 2025 to approximately £94 billion in 2026. Within HLPartnership, our own analysis points to £10 billion of refinancing among our firms.
The figure is large, but what matters most is the mix of clients behind it.
- Five-year fixes from 2021. These borrowers locked in at the lowest point in history, often between 1.5 and 2 per cent. When they refinance in 2026, even moving to 4 per cent will feel like a major step up. They will need reassurance and careful budgeting conversations to adjust.
- Three-year fixes from 2023. Many of these clients fixed at 5 to 6 per cent during the most turbulent conditions. Their refinancing in 2026 is likely to bring welcome relief, with lower costs and the chance to reset longer-term plans.
- Two-year fixes from 2024. This group also fixed at elevated levels and will come back to market in 2026. They will often see meaningful reductions in monthly payments, and advisers can show clear value by helping them secure and maximise those savings.
Some borrowers who originally fixed in 2022 on a two-year deal will also feature, having refinanced in 2024 and then opted again for a short-term product. For this group, 2026 may be their second renewal in quick succession, reinforcing the importance of advice that looks beyond the short term.
Three distinct cohorts, all with different starting points and different expectations. Each will need tailored conversations, making planning essential.
Why planning matters now
It would be a mistake to wait for clients to make the first move. Many will delay until the final months of their deal, while others may not recognise the opportunity until prompted. Without forward planning, valuable time is lost.
Preparation means auditing client books now and mapping every maturity in 2026. It means segmenting clients according to the challenges they are likely to face, and creating contact strategies that give them clarity well before renewal. Most of all, it means ensuring that when clients do come to review their options, they already understand the choices available and the implications of each.
The role of protection and insurance
A refinancing conversation should never be only about the rate. It is also the natural moment to step back and consider whether the property and its household is properly protected. Clients want to know that they can finance their home, but also that they can stay in it if circumstances change through illness, injury or, sadly, death. These are difficult subjects, but they go to the heart of what good advice is about.
By bringing protection and insurance into refinancing discussions, advisers help clients to see the bigger picture. It is not only about securing a competitive product for the next two, three or five years. It is about making sure the home remains affordable and secure whatever the future brings. That is where brokers prove their value most clearly, not only in arranging finance, but in safeguarding the client’s future in that home.
Outcomes over products
The FCA’s Consumer Duty places the emphasis squarely on outcomes. Advisers are expected to act in good faith, avoid foreseeable harm, and support clients in achieving their objectives. That translates directly into the mortgage conversation: not simply securing a product, but recommending one that is suitable, sustainable, and fully understood.
In practice, this often means balancing stability against flexibility, and weighing short-term savings against longer-term certainty. These are the decisions clients cannot and should not make alone.
A year that will prove the value of advice
As the summer of 2025 moves ever closer to autumn, brokers still have time to prepare, but the window is narrowing. The market is steadier than it has been for several years. Rates are easing, affordability is improving, and lenders are once again competing to win borrowers’ business. These conditions, however, are only the prelude. The decisive chapter begins in 2026.
With remortgaging forecast by IMLA and Barclays to rise from £88 billion in 2025 to around £94 billion in 2026, including £10 billion within HLPartnership’s network, next year will be pivotal. Brokers who plan ahead, engage their clients early, and focus on delivering good consumer outcomes will not only write more business. They will also prove, beyond doubt, the enduring and indispensable value of advice.
Clients will remember who helped them plan and who ensured they were ready for what came next.
